All politics are local. And my local politics suck. That might not be entirely fair to the truly local politics, but on a statewide level, Missouri has managed to go from bellwether to bottom of the barrel. I know I’ve written mostly about national issues thus far, but if you will indulge me for a while, this will at least touch on national issues. On another note, apologies for missing last week – life happens.
If you haven’t heard, Senator Roy Blunt (R-MO) is joining a long line of Republicans retiring. Those other retirees include Senators Richard Burr (R-NC), Pat Toomey (R-PA), and Rob Portman (R-OH). All three are states that either have a Democratic senator (Pennsylvania and Ohio) or were thought to be a battleground in 2020. In particular, Pennsylvania offers a great chance for Democrats to pick up a seat, and with no Democrats up for election in a state that voted Trump and Ron Johnson (R-WI) up for election, it looks like there could be room for Democrats to have an actual majority in the Senate rather than a Vice President-aided majority.
There, I went national. Missouri likely doesn’t offer that same chance. Sure, Missouri recently had a Democratic governor and Claire McCaskill was in office until January, 2019. But there are currently no statewide Democrats in office, after Auditor Nicole Galloway ran for governor unsuccessfully. Trump won the state handily in 2016 and 2020 and potentially competitive races in MO-02 were won easily by Ann Wagner.
But there is an opening. Roy Blunt is not exactly beloved by Missouri. He was only a two-term senator and there was, laughably, some animosity displayed toward him for his role in legally counting the validated vote counts of the 2020 presidential election. Further, he only won his re-election campaign in 2016 by 2.8% over Jason Kander, receiving 49.2% of the vote, in a state that Donald Trump won by 18.6 points, getting about 56.5% of the vote. Even still, Blunt would have been an incumbent Republican in an increasingly Republican state.
After the retirement, the Republicans don’t have a clear candidate. Gov. Mike Parson might make sense, but I don’t get the feeling that he’s that interested or that well-liked, and he’s apparently already said he won’t. Former Gov. Eric Greitens has declared his candidacy. For those that don’t remember, he resigned after facing impeachment for a two-part scandal that included recording a woman during sex without her consent and using a donor list illegally. But what died didn’t stay dead. There are some other names floating around there – basically all the Republicans representatives in Missouri, Attorney General Eric Schmitt, and Lieutenant Governor Mike Kehoe. NASCAR driver Carl Edwards is also rumored as being interested. None of these names really stand out, so it might be possible for the Democrats to at least make Missouri competitive.
Right now, however, the Democrats don’t have a strong and obvious candidate. The leader in the clubhouse at the moment is former state senator Scott Sifton, who’s also managed to wrangle a handful of (relatively minor) endorsements. But that was before Blunt announced. That said, other options are not plentiful. St. Louis will have a new mayor and soon-to-be-former mayor Lyda Krewson was not the most well-liked. Jason Kander, Nicole Galloway, and Claire McCaskill all have declined, with Galloway endorsing Sifton. Freshman Representative Cori Bush (MO-01) has also declined. Meanwhile, Kansas City mayor Quinton Lucas has expressed interest. While I do like both Sifton and Lucas, neither seems particularly well suited to really go toe-to-toe with whomever the Republicans nominate.
Enter Jay Nixon. The former governor may represent the Democrats’ best chance of stealing a seat in a red state. Nixon was a relatively popular governor, winning as a Democrat as the state turned red. What’s more is that his first term immediately followed Matt Blunt, Roy Blunt’s son. That’s right, Nixon is known for replacing Blunts. Nixon won in 2008 handily, by 19 points, in a state won by John McCain (albeit in a close contest). He did this by drastically outperforming President Obama in rural areas. This ability to draw out rural Democrat votes could be key to winning back a Senate seat here.
Certainly, Nixon has some potential flaws. He’s far from being considered a progressive, and you worry that he might have trouble drawing out the city votes, which would be need to be high for a Democrat to have a chance. This latter concern is exacerbated as there were (fair) complaints about his handling of the Ferguson protests in 2015. So there’s concerns that he might not be able to drive out the city vote.
Still, Nixon may represent the Democrats’ best chance of stealing a Missouri senate seat, and Democrats would be wise to court him.
If you haven’t heard, Senator Roy Blunt (R-MO) is joining a long line of Republicans retiring. Those other retirees include Senators Richard Burr (R-NC), Pat Toomey (R-PA), and Rob Portman (R-OH). All three are states that either have a Democratic senator (Pennsylvania and Ohio) or were thought to be a battleground in 2020. In particular, Pennsylvania offers a great chance for Democrats to pick up a seat, and with no Democrats up for election in a state that voted Trump and Ron Johnson (R-WI) up for election, it looks like there could be room for Democrats to have an actual majority in the Senate rather than a Vice President-aided majority.
There, I went national. Missouri likely doesn’t offer that same chance. Sure, Missouri recently had a Democratic governor and Claire McCaskill was in office until January, 2019. But there are currently no statewide Democrats in office, after Auditor Nicole Galloway ran for governor unsuccessfully. Trump won the state handily in 2016 and 2020 and potentially competitive races in MO-02 were won easily by Ann Wagner.
But there is an opening. Roy Blunt is not exactly beloved by Missouri. He was only a two-term senator and there was, laughably, some animosity displayed toward him for his role in legally counting the validated vote counts of the 2020 presidential election. Further, he only won his re-election campaign in 2016 by 2.8% over Jason Kander, receiving 49.2% of the vote, in a state that Donald Trump won by 18.6 points, getting about 56.5% of the vote. Even still, Blunt would have been an incumbent Republican in an increasingly Republican state.
After the retirement, the Republicans don’t have a clear candidate. Gov. Mike Parson might make sense, but I don’t get the feeling that he’s that interested or that well-liked, and he’s apparently already said he won’t. Former Gov. Eric Greitens has declared his candidacy. For those that don’t remember, he resigned after facing impeachment for a two-part scandal that included recording a woman during sex without her consent and using a donor list illegally. But what died didn’t stay dead. There are some other names floating around there – basically all the Republicans representatives in Missouri, Attorney General Eric Schmitt, and Lieutenant Governor Mike Kehoe. NASCAR driver Carl Edwards is also rumored as being interested. None of these names really stand out, so it might be possible for the Democrats to at least make Missouri competitive.
Right now, however, the Democrats don’t have a strong and obvious candidate. The leader in the clubhouse at the moment is former state senator Scott Sifton, who’s also managed to wrangle a handful of (relatively minor) endorsements. But that was before Blunt announced. That said, other options are not plentiful. St. Louis will have a new mayor and soon-to-be-former mayor Lyda Krewson was not the most well-liked. Jason Kander, Nicole Galloway, and Claire McCaskill all have declined, with Galloway endorsing Sifton. Freshman Representative Cori Bush (MO-01) has also declined. Meanwhile, Kansas City mayor Quinton Lucas has expressed interest. While I do like both Sifton and Lucas, neither seems particularly well suited to really go toe-to-toe with whomever the Republicans nominate.
Enter Jay Nixon. The former governor may represent the Democrats’ best chance of stealing a seat in a red state. Nixon was a relatively popular governor, winning as a Democrat as the state turned red. What’s more is that his first term immediately followed Matt Blunt, Roy Blunt’s son. That’s right, Nixon is known for replacing Blunts. Nixon won in 2008 handily, by 19 points, in a state won by John McCain (albeit in a close contest). He did this by drastically outperforming President Obama in rural areas. This ability to draw out rural Democrat votes could be key to winning back a Senate seat here.
Certainly, Nixon has some potential flaws. He’s far from being considered a progressive, and you worry that he might have trouble drawing out the city votes, which would be need to be high for a Democrat to have a chance. This latter concern is exacerbated as there were (fair) complaints about his handling of the Ferguson protests in 2015. So there’s concerns that he might not be able to drive out the city vote.
Still, Nixon may represent the Democrats’ best chance of stealing a Missouri senate seat, and Democrats would be wise to court him.